How long will ECB and FED raise interest rates ?
How long are ECB and FED expected to raise interest rates ?
The ECB interest rate for Main refinancing operations is now 4.50% and the rate for Deposit facility is 4.00%, which is a record high.
The rate for Main refinancing operations was raised 10 consecutive times since 27th July 2022 to 20th September 2023. ECB will most likely not continue with intetest rate rising. But it is expected that interest rates will stay high at least a couple of months. According to many economists, ECB is expected to start lower the rates later in 2024.
ECB representative said that interest rates will stay high as long as necessary to slow the inflation.
The FED interest rate is raised similarly to the ECB interest rate. After 11 inceases since March 2022, the FED funds rate is 5.25% - 5.5%, which is the highest level in 22 years.
As in case of the ECB interest rates, the FED rates are now expected to stay high at least in Q1 and Q2 2024. The FED will most likely start lower the rates in the second half of 2024.
ECB and FED interest rates are now at the long-term maximum. The high rising of interest rates will most probably not continue. If ECB or FED will raise interest rates again, it will be a slight increase by 0.25% - 0.50%.
It is expected that ECB and FED will start lower interest rates in the second half of 2024, but the rates are expected to stay high in 2024. The lowering of interest rates will start slowly. The more rapid lowering of intetest rates will occur later.